Field note
Retention curves after Raya look kinder than they are
A festive campaign fills day-one return. Read the same cohort after the campaign week before you change onboarding.
Malaysian consumer apps often run promotions around Raya. New accounts arrive with a voucher already in the wallet. Day-one return rises. Teams then rewrite onboarding as if the year had changed.
In a readout last year we split the cohort: accounts created in the campaign week versus the fortnight after. The later cohort returned to the same tired drop between lesson two and lesson three. The campaign had not taught the product anything new.
When you bring us a retention chart, say whether a festival, a school holiday, or a payday loan push sat inside the window. We will draw a second line before anyone celebrates.